'The entire US ecosystem built over decades at the bases in the Gulf region, especially the UAE, costing trillions of dollars have been decimated, dealing a mortal blow to the US Central Command's war capability,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Karex, the Malaysian company that makes roughly one in five of the world's condoms -- about five billion a year, supplying Durex and Trojan among others -- announced this week that it is raising prices by up to 30 percent. The reason is the Strait of Hormuz.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Equipped with advanced weaponry, the HMS Anson is fitted with "Tomahawk Block IV land-attack missiles" with a range of 1,600 km and "Spearfish heavyweight torpedoes," providing formidable offensive capabilities.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
Iran has rejected United States allegations that it is preparing attacks on American facilities, alleging that Washington, DC is attempting to escalate tensions in West Asia, Iranian state broadcaster Press TV reported.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Trump has made it clear: the US will not lift its blockade of Iranian ports until a deal is signed.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
'India's ties with Israel have to do with defence and general technology.' 'The war changes nothing in what India and Israel hope to get from the relationship.' 'It's not as though India will get significantly more benefits from Iran if India abandons Israel at this time.'
'The US landed in this war without planning. The US felt that if they kill Ayatollah Khamenei the people of Iran will come out on the roads and do a regime change.' 'On the contrary, the US bombings on Iran has united the entire nation.'
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
Congress leader Sonia Gandhi criticizes the Modi government's stance on Palestine, calling it a 'profound silence' and an abdication of humanity and morality. She argues that India needs to demonstrate leadership on the issue and that the government's actions are driven by personal friendship rather than constitutional values or strategic interests.
As days turn into weeks and America loses more planes, as the destruction of trillions of dollars worth military assets piles up, and dead bodies of soldiers return in ever greater numbers in coffins, Trump will have to answer some very difficult questions to save his presidency, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Iran's participation in this year's World Cup has been called into question after co-hosts the United States launched joint air strikes at the country along with Israel at the weekend.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
'The world does not know that the families of these journalists were threatened and one by one they too have been killed.'
Israel's aerial assault on Iran is widely viewed as an act of naked aggression with no basis in international law, carried out unilaterally despite US opposition and aimed at derailing ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Nor would it have serious implications in India's relations with Saudi Arabia that stand on their own and have improved significantly in recent times, including in defence and strategic affairs.'
'If the Trump administration could gain access to the nuclear weapons, they would be satisfied -- at least they could control them.'
Experts believe it would be far-fetched to believe that Riyadh would support Pakistan militarily in any conflict with India, which has robust strategic and economic relations with Saudi Arabia.
Trump couldn't care less anymore about the Israeli demand for Iran's 'de-nuclearisation' and 'de-militarisation.' Trump pins hopes on a grand bargain with Iran as a partner in America First, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The new Israeli settlements in the West Bank are illegal and inconsistent with international law, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said, reversing a Trump-era policy.
India briefed envoys of around 45 nations on the Pahalgam terror attack and its link to cross-border terrorism. The envoys were briefed in two batches by senior officials of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). India also announced punitive measures against Pakistan, including expulsion of Pakistani military attaches, suspension of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 and immediate shutting down of the Attari land-transit post. Pakistan responded by shutting its airspace to all Indian airlines and suspending trade with New Delhi.
'Stage five of this catastrophe has begun: Starvation.'
'The background for the Saudi-Pakistan agreement is the fact that the regional security order has collapsed due to the Israeli attack on Doha.' 'The Americans have largely abandoned their security guarantee for West Asia and the region has no choice but to look at alternatives.'
World leaders, including US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, condemned the terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 people, expressing solidarity with India. The attack was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist group. The attack came during US Vice President J D Vance's maiden visit to India. Prime Minister Modi, who had arrived in Saudi Arabia on a two-day visit earlier in the day, cut short his visit and departed for New Delhi on Tuesday night following the attack.
The Israeli government on Sunday approved the appointment of Reuven Azar as the new Ambassador to India.
'What the Americans want is to destabilise Iran. For destabilising Iran, you need access. 'One access is through Iraq. The other access is through Pakistan.'
Trump has a major decision to take in coming days -- specifically, how to rescue Israel from the attritional war that lies ahead, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Netanyahu lured Trump into a trap by enticing him with a seductive scenario of massive lucrative business in Gaza's reconstruction.' 'Trump's imagination is running riot, completely disconnected from ground realities,' asserts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
On Wednesday, October 18, 2023, US President Joe Biden visited Tel Aviv to express support for Israel in public and persuade Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli war cabinet in private to allow humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians in Gaza.
At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
'It was inspired by the Hamas attack and was like their attack -- well planned and well executed.'
